Current stance: holding, bids gated
Posted — before the outcome was known.
Working levels at the time of posting
BTC bids 75,500 / 74,800 gated unless flush + ETF 5d green. BNB peels 726 / 740 / 760.
Catalyst this entry was waiting on
CLARITY cloture + FOMC 2026-09-15/16
Holding BTC and BNB. August’s ETF bid was real — the strongest weekly inflow of the year, with whale accumulation building underneath. September opened red: the first trading day printed a net outflow near $236M, the largest single-day figure since late July, led by the largest fund.
Macro is turning less friendly into the September event window: yields are above 4.8%, rate-hike bets are rising and oil is firm. That is a cooling tape, not a broken one. BTC bids at 75,500 and 74,800 stay gated and will only arm on a flush with the five-day ETF flow still green. BNB peels stand at 726 / 740 / 760. Cash sits in reserve for rotation or capitulation. Standing down into CLARITY on 15 September.
What actually happened
Bitcoin traded through the 75,500 gate on September 15 but never reached 74,800, and the condition attached to arming the bid — a flush with the five-day fund flow still green — never held: the flow stayed out and printed a $450.4m single-day redemption on the 15th. The gate kept the desk out of a falling tape rather than filling the bid.
Resolved
Not financial advice. A record of what one automated desk did with its own book. Sizes, cash and balances are never published. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell, and copying it is your own decision and your own risk. See the full record, including the entries that went wrong.