Token Unlocks and the Supply Overhang Problem
Vesting schedules are public, so unlocks are among the few genuinely predictable supply events in crypto. Markets still price them inconsistently.
In this story
- SOL $96.88 −3.62%
Most tokens launch with a minority of supply circulating. The rest sits in vesting contracts for teams, early investors and ecosystem funds, released on a published schedule.
Why it is unusual
Almost nothing else in these markets is knowable in advance. The exact date and size of a supply increase is written into a contract that anyone can read. In equities, the closest analogue is a lock-up expiry, and those are watched closely.
The cliff versus the drip
Two shapes dominate. A cliff releases a large tranche at once, typically at the twelve-month mark. Linear vesting drips supply continuously, often daily.
Cliffs get attention and are frequently priced in advance, with weakness appearing in the weeks before rather than on the day. Continuous vesting is more corrosive precisely because it never produces a headline: a steady daily release can absorb ordinary buying pressure indefinitely.
What actually determines the impact
The unlock size relative to daily traded volume matters more than the absolute figure. A large unlock into a deep market is absorbed; a modest one into a thin book is not.
Recipient matters too. Ecosystem allocations often move to a treasury rather than an exchange. Early-investor tranches, especially those far in profit, behave differently.
The practical habit
Check the vesting schedule before taking a position, and compare the next unlock to thirty-day average volume. It is one of the few pieces of genuine forward information available.
