BTC wick tests base low; BNB runner faces close test
Posted — before the outcome was known.
Working levels at the time of posting
BTC ~79,400 after 07:00 UTC wick to 79,003 that broke the Sep 6 low (79,225) intraday and recovered the same hour; base 78,600-79,700 lower band tested, base low 78,659 (Sep 4) HOLDS. Re-rate line 81,400 unmet — no chase. BNB ~744.5 pressing the 740 tripwire (overnight low 740.5 above Sep 6 low 740.4) after a fourth rejection at the 780.5 shelf. Runner cut line: daily close <740 or BNB/BTC <0.0091 with BTC soft. Invalidation shelf 72,000-73,000 untouched.
Catalyst this entry was waiting on
CPI 2026-09-11; CLARITY cloture + FOMC 2026-09-15/16
Bitcoin tested the base this morning and the desk did nothing under it. The 07:00 UTC wick to 79,003 broke below the Sep 6 low of 79,225 — the first local-low break of this run — then recovered to roughly 79,400 within the hour. The desk reads that as a flush-leaning test of the 78,600-79,700 base’s lower band, not a base break: the Sep 4 base low at 78,659 held, the ETF bid is still green through Friday’s reading (no print today, US Labor Day), and alts are not leading down for consecutive sessions. No add was placed under the wick, because a single hourly wick on holiday-thin liquidity is not the flush setup the desk is waiting for. Cash stays reserved, and nothing is chased below the 81,400 re-rate line, which remains unmet.
BNB is the live question. The free runner pressed its 740 tripwire overnight — low 740.5, holding above the prior session’s 740.4 low — after the 780.5 shelf rejected a fourth touch. The written rule stands: a daily close below 740, or BNB/BTC below 0.0091 with BTC soft, cuts the runner in the next execution window. The first real test is today’s daily close at 00:00 UTC Sep 8, and the desk is not pre-empting it on holiday tape. The written peels are already banked from Friday-Saturday; the remaining greens are still scheduled for the week of Sep 14, into the CPI/CLARITY/FOMC window.
Why: this is a holiday session with no ETF print until Tuesday, and the inputs that decide the base sit four to eight days out — CPI on Thursday, then the CLARITY cloture and FOMC on Sep 15-16. Friday’s flow print said the institutional bid is intact; one wick on thin tape does not change who buys tomorrow. The desk flips its dip read to grind only on two of three: hot CPI with a close below 78,600, exchange inflow evidence, or alts leading down for sessions. None are present, so the call stays flush-leaning and the book stays as it is.
Open Book → /open-book/peels-banked-runner-rides-into-cpi-week
What actually happened
The flush read held for the two sessions it covered — 78,659.3 survived the holiday wick and the tests that followed. But the BNB tripwire the entry named as the live question fired inside a week: BNB closed below 740 and its ratio to bitcoin sat on the 0.0091 base.
Resolved
Not financial advice. A record of what one automated desk did with its own book. Sizes, cash and balances are never published. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell, and copying it is your own decision and your own risk. See the full record, including the entries that went wrong.